Tuesday, May 25, 2010

The Row Oswalt Sweepstakes


The Houston Astros are in last place in the NL Central, and their ace Roy Oswalt is tired of the losing, and has requested a trade. Oswalt was one of the keys to Houston's success in the early-mid 2000's leading the team to a World Series appearance in 2005, where they would lose to the White Sox. Still, in recent years, Oswalt has begun to fade, but his salary has not; Oswalt still has $33 million left on his contract. Oswalt is a pricey option for teams looking to trade for him, not just in salary, but also receiving Oswalt will cost numerous high-valued prospects and young players who are near MLB-ready.

So who are the potential suitors:
A.) New York Mets:
A few years ago, the Mets shipped away a number of prospects to Minnesota for Johann Santana, so what is to stop them from doing it again. John Maine and John Niese have not only been bad, they are now both injured. Oliver Perez refused to take a demotion to Triple-A Buffalo, so instead manager Gerry Manuel sent him to the bullpen. This leaves only Santana and Mike Pelfrey as locks in the rotation. Right now the Mets are set to have R.A. Dickey and Hisonori Takahashi in the rotation. Clearly the need is there for a starter. The Mets also certainly have the money, and although there are questions to the quality of players in the farm system, it may come down to Oswalt deciding if he wants to play for the Mets. Oswalt has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and if he doesn't see the Mets winning any time soon, he will likely reject a trade there.

B.) New York Yankees/ Boston Red Sox
It is getting annoying that in every trade rumor discussion, the Yanks and the ox have their name thrown about. The Red Sox made their pitching play in the off season, signing John Lackey. They already have older proven starters in Josh Beckett, Lackey, and Tim Wakefield, and also have the young starter Jon Lester. Contrary to the belief of many Yankee fans, you cannot have an ace in every spot in the rotation. The Yankees already have CC, Burnett, and Pettitte making big bucks this year, as well as the disappointing Javier Vazquez. Vazquez has been bad, but has he been so terrible as to give up hope on the guy already? NO. Plus, the Yankees have seen great pitching out of the young Phil Hughes, making the rotation full. Simply there is no room in these rotations for another older pitcher, and it seems as if the days of Boston and New York just throwing away prospects to get older players is over as both teams are now smarter.

C.) Texas Rangers
The Rangers would seem like the likely destination for Oswalt; that is if they weren't going bankrupt. Owner Tom Hicks (notorious for signing A-Rod), recently filed for bankruptcy in hopes of getting MLB to bail him out before Nolan Ryan and others buy the team in a few months. This would create money for Oswalt to come to the team, and he would be joining a team full of young stars like Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Elvis Andrus, and Neftali Feliz. The Rangers sit in first in a weak AL West and the addition of Oswalt to a decent rotation would instantly make them the favorite to remain on top in the West and could pose a threat in the playoffs. Still, it will be interesting if MLB would be willing to bail out the Rangers on this one.

D.) Los Angeles Angels
I cannot see the Angels making a move to acquire Oswalt. They had an opportunity to re-sign John Lackey in the off season, a comparable pitcher, and instead they let him go sign with Boston. What would make the Angels change their mind? If anything their 26-31 record and third place standing in the AL West would persuade them that maybe this isn't the year.

E.) Washington Nationals
The wild card in this sweepstakes is the Washington Nationals. The Nats are hovering around .500 and a splash like Oswalt could make this team a legitimate wild card threat in the National League. Livan Hernandez has reached back more than a few years and has been dominant. Stephen Strasburg is on the verge of being called up, and if the injured Jason Marquis and Chien-Ming Wang could give the Nats anything, the Nationals could have a very good rotation. Plus with a young pitcher like Stephen Strasburg, he can learn from an elite veteran pitcher like Oswalt. This will be an exciting year for Washington with the arrival of Strasburg, but the arrival of Oswalt could turn excitement into true belief in a playoff appearance.

Most of the teams vying for Oswalt seem to have some sort of obstacles in their way. That is why I'm predicting that Oswalt will stay put in Houston, at least for now. If other players like Carlos Lee or Lance Berkman are moved, Oswalt might push the urgency of a trade, and teams may be able to get him for less.

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